The US, being alone among industrialized countries in that it’s growing, is actually growing quite quickly. High rates of immigration plus a relatively high rate of childbirth among a religious population make the possibility of twice as many Americans as there are now during my life time conceivable. (Although every American will be an atheist, an evangelical, a Mormon or a Hasid by then). But some states are growing faster than others. If you average the growth rates since 1980, some states will double quickly and are likely to do so, and some would take several centuries.
Nevada, 2026. As discussed previously. At this rate, Nevada in 2195 will have more people than the earth does now. But its collapse is imminent.
Arizona, 2031: population, 13 million. That many people living in a big desert with lawns and air conditioning sort of embodies a problem with this country that underlies the financial crisis. This is significant because I think we’re about to see a drastic slowing of growth in–if not an exodus out of–the southwestern states.
Florida, 2038: population 38 million. A Florida the size of California in less than thirty years. This won’t happen. In 2009, Florida may actually record a net loss because of the foreclosure crisis. Still, it’s rate of growth extrapolated over thirty years is intense. It will surpass New York soon enough as the third most populous state but it was the least populous state in the South as recently as the 1930s(!)
Utah: 2039: population, 5.4 million. Fast-growing, but Mormons are there for keeps.
Alaska, 2042: population 1.4 million. I see no reason why Alaska shouldn’t become the Florida of the 21st century. As the global climate changes, it will only become more hospitable–and while a warmer world won’t alter a sunless winter, should things really go to hell there’s a whole lot of water up there, and near-infinite space. I don’t see why Alaska couldn’t have a population numbering many millions in fifty years.
Georgia, 2042. Population 19.2 million. How many more counties can metro Atlanta absorb? There is no question that the Atlanta-Charlotte corridor will become an uninterrupted belt of development (paging William Gibson). Georgia is scary.
Colorado, 2044: population 9.8 million. The gap with Wyoming only grows.
Texas: 2045. It is currently growing by 1300+ people every day. That’s an extra Austin every year and a half.
Idaho, 2049: population 3.1 million. If you take its post-1990 rate, it would double by 2038.
Washington, 2050: population 13.02 million.
North Carolina, 2051: population 18.4 million.
California, 2054: a monstrous state-nation of 73 million people. That would be gruesome. Even at its slower rate of growth during this century, there will still be 59 million Californians by 2054.
New Mexico, 2055: 3.9 million.
Virginia, 2056: population 14.4 million. By then Richmond will be a DC suburb.
Delaware, 2058: population 1.75 million. Fastest-growing state in the Northeast.
South Carolina, 2061: population 8.8 million.
New Hampshire, 2062: population 2.6 million.
Oregon, 2062: population 7.6 million.
Tennessee, 2072: population 12.4 million.
United States, 2072: if we don’t abort almost everybody, there could be 616 million Americans in only 63 years. I can’t think of a worse nightmare, unless the global economy is carbon-negative and nobody eats.
Maryland, 2075: population, 11.2 million.
Hawai’i, 2078: population, 2.6 million. You’d think more people would live in Hawai’i.
Minnesota, 2087: population, 10.4 million.
Arkansas, 2096: population 5.7 million.
Montana, 2101: population 1.9 million.
Vermont, 2102. Population, 1.2 million. By that time, it will have become the smallest US state.
Oklahoma, 2114. Population, 7.2 million. Why anyone would want to live there, I just don’t know. It’s absolutely the worst state.
Missouri, 2115: population 11.8 million. Right behind Oklahoma in more ways than one.
Wisconsin, 2116: population 11.2 million.
Kansas, 2125: population 5.6 million.
Alabama, 2129: population 9.3 million.
New Jersey, 2130. Population 17.3 million. This is impossible, even if its bafflingly depopulated cities regrew. The state should be completely built-out in twenty years’ time, and that many people living in such a tiny state would give it a population density–which already exceeds that of India, Japan or the Netherlands–approaching that of Bangladesh.
Kentucky, 2134: population, 8.5 million.
Maine, 2135: population, 2.6 million.
Mississippi, 2135: population 5.9 million.
South Dakota, 2136: population 1.6 million. But if you take post-2000 growth, it would double much more quickly, by 2095.
Indiana, 2141: population 12.75 million.
Massachusetts, 2162: population, 13 million.
Wyoming, 2162. After losing people in the 80s, Wyoming was one of the fastest-growing states last year. Averaging post-1990 growth it would double by 2086–still going to take a while to hit that magic million mark.
Nebraska, 2163: population 3.5 million.
Illinois, 2168: population 25.8 million. Averaging post-1990 it would be 2113.
Connecticut, 2172: population 7 million.
New York: 2193. Population, 39.5 million. Although New York’s rate of growth, currently .0375% per year, should probably increase as people hunker down during the economic disaster. In other words, fewer people will be fleeing the Empire State for warmer climes as they have for the last half-century; almost 200,000 New Yorkers jet each year. Extract that dynamic and the state would double by 2060. 50,000 people annually leave New York for Florida alone. Take that away and NY doubles by 2119.
And while 40 million New Yorkers sounds impractical, it still wouldn’t make the state as dense as the Israel or Japan.
Rhode Island, 2204: 2.1 million. Not likely. That would be more people per square mile than the Palestinian territories.
Michigan, 2264: population, 20 million. At the rate Detroit is shrinking, it will have only 75,000 people left by then, so everyone will be living in Grosse Pointe Arcologies.
Ohio, 2323: population 22.9 million. Mostly Terminators.
Pennsylvania, 2406, population, 25 million. It’s just a depressing place.
Louisiana, 2413: population 8.8 million. The state was hardly a magnet for growth before Katrina, but ignoring figures for this decade it would probs double by 2240. But I’m sure the future holds more hurricanes.
Iowa, 2645. Even Captain Kirk will have been dead for hundreds of years before Iowa doubles to 6 million residents.
North Dakota, ?? It has almost the same number of people as it did in 1920. It’ll probably keep fluctuating within the same narrow band, but technically, at current rates, fewer than 500,000 people will remain by the early 24th century.
West Virginia is shrinking even more quickly, although equally inconstantly. By 2250 its population of 1.8 million, down from a 1950 high of 2 million, will have shrunken to 999,000. It will be the least populous state long before that.
This took longer than I thought.